ES 2.3

LIFETIME WELFARE DEPENDENCE ¹³

Chronic welfare receipt is a major concern of policy makers of all political persuasions for several reasons. First, chronic welfare receipt imposes large costs on taxpayers. Second, there is some evidence suggesting that long-term welfare receipt may have a more negative impact on adult recipients and their children than short-term receipt that helps a family weather a crisis.¹⁴

Living in a family receiving welfare at some point during childhood is a common experience, affecting 40 percent of all children, 33 percent of non-black children, and 81 percent of black children who turned age 18 in 1991-93 (see Figure ES 2.3.A). Long-term welfare receipt is considerably less common: 10 percent of all children lived in families receiving welfare for 11 or more years of their childhood.

Differences by Race. For black children, however, long-term welfare receipt is considerably more common than for non-black children. Thirty-eight (38) percent of all black children born in the years 1973-1975 spent 11 or more years of their childhood living in families receiving at least some welfare. This contrasts with the experience of non-black children, of whom only 6 percent spent 11 or more years of their childhood in families receiving welfare.

Changes Over Time. Table ES 2.3.A presents data for three cohorts of children turning age 18 in 1985-87, 1988-90, and 1991-93. The data show two contrasting trends in the lifetime experience of welfare receipt among children:

• On the one hand, there appears to be a small increase in the proportion of children whose families never received welfare, from 57 percent to 61 percent across the three age cohorts. This trend is also evident for black children, where the proportion whose families never received welfare increased from 12 percent to 19 percent.
• On the other hand, there is also a small increase in the percentage of children who lived in families receiving welfare for at least 11 years, from eight percent in the cohort turning age 18 in 1985-87 to 10 percent for the cohort turning age 18 in 1991-93.

These two trends indicate some polarization of the life experience of children. A slightly greater proportion is growing up in families who are chronically dependent on welfare, even while an increasing proportion of children live in families that manage to avoid welfare altogether.

Welfare Benefits As a Portion of Total Family Income. Of the 10 percent of children in families that received welfare for at least 11 years, fewer than half lived in families in which welfare benefits were at least half of total family income for at least 11 years. Similarly, although 38 percent of black children lived in families receiving welfare for at least 11 years, only 14 percent lived in families in which welfare benefits were at least half of total family income for at least 11 years (see Table ES 2.3.A, right panel). Thus, welfare is a supplement to family income rather than the primary source of income in more than half of the families receiving welfare over the long run.

AFDC Receipt. As shown in Figure ES 2.3.B, when only AFDC benefits are taken into account, the pattern is very similar to the pattern for all welfare benefits. While living in a family receiving AFDC benefits for at least one year is fairly common (19 percent of non-black children and 67 percent of black children), chronic receipt is not. Only 4 percent of non-black children lived in families receiving AFDC benefits for at least 11 years, and only 20 percent of black children lived in such families. Moreover, as shown in Table ES 2.3.B, there is no evidence of increased polarization of children with respect to AFDC receipt.
 

Figure ES 2.3.A  Percentage of Children Receiving Welfare by Number of Years on Welfare Through Age 17: for Those Who Turned Age 18 in 1991–1993

 

Figure ES 2.3.B  Percentage of Children Receiving AFDC by Number of Years on AFDC Through Age 17: for Those Who Turned Age 18 in 1991–1993

 

Table ES 2.3.A  Percentage of Children Receiving Welfare by Number of Years on Welfare  During Childhood, by Year Turned 18
				NUMBER OF YEARS FAMILY  RECEIVED ANY WELFARE  BENEFIT				NUMBER OF YEARS IN WHICH  WELFARE BENEFITS WERE  AT LEAST HALF OF TOTAL  FAMILY INCOME
				______________________________				_______________________________
					One or	Six or	11 or		One or	Six or	11 or
					More	More	More		More	More	More
				Never	Years	Years	Years	Never	Years	Years	Years
				______	______	______	______	______	______	______	______
Turned age 18 in 1985-1987
(1967-69 birth cohort)
	All children			57	43	16	8	-	-	-	-
	Black			12	88	66	35	-	-	-	-
	Non-black			64	36	8	3	-	-	-	-
Turned age 18 in 1988-1990
(1970-72 birth cohort)
	All children			58	43	21	12	-	-	-	-
	Black			19	81	67	40	-	-	-	-
	Non-black			65	35	13	7	-	-	-	-
Turned age 18 in 1991-1993
(1973-75 birth cohort)
	All children			61	40	17	10	83	17	9	4
	Black			19	81	52	38	50	50	30	14
	Non-black			67	33	12	6	88	12	5	2
Note: Welfare includes AFDC, Food Stamps and SSI or "other welfare, which includes local General Assistance."
Source: Estimates supplied by Greg J. Duncan, Northwestern University, based on data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID).

 

Table ES 2.3.B  Percentage of Children Receiving AFDC by Number of Years on AFDC During Childhood, by Year Turned 18
			Number of years family  received any AFDC  benefit				Number of years in which  AFDC benefits were  at least half of  total family income
			———————————————				———————————————
				One or	Six or	11 or		One or	Six or	11 or
				More	More	More		More	More	More
			Never	Years	Years	Years	Never	Years	Years	Years
			––––––	––––––	––––––	––––––	––––––	––––––	––––––	––––––
Turned age 18 in 1985-1987  (1967-69 birth cohort)
	All children		77	23	10	5	87	13	3	1
	Black		29	71	45	19	44	56	15	6
	Non-black		85	15	4	2	94	7	2	1
Turned age 18 in 1988 -1990  (1970-72 birth cohort)
	All children		71	28	15	7	84	17	7	3
	Black		28	73	45	23	49	51	16	9
	Non-black		80	20	9	4	91	10	5	2
Turned age 18 in 1991 -1993  (1973-75 birth cohort)
	All children		76	25	11	6	85	15	6	2
	Black		34	67	39	20	54	47	23	10
	Non-black		81	19	7	4	89	11	4	1
Source: Estimates supplied by Greg J. Duncan, Northwestern University based on data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID).

¹⁴ Duncan, G., and Brooks-Gunn, J. 1996. "Income Effects Across the Life Span: Integration and Interpretation," in Consequences of Growing Up Poor (G. Duncan and J. Brooks-Gunn, eds.).
 

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