Indicators of Welfare Dependence:  Annual Report to Congress, 2004

Chapter II.
Indicators of Dependence

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Contents

• Indicator 1. Degree of Dependence
• Indicator 2. Receipt of Means-Tested Assistance and Labor Force Attachment
• Indicator 3. Rates of Receipt of Means-Tested Assistance
• Indicator 4. Rates of Participation in Means-Tested Assistance Programs
• Indicator 5. Multiple Program Receipt
• Indicator 6. Dependence Transitions
• Indicator 7. Dependence Spell Duration
• Indicator 8. Program Spell Duration
• Indicator 9. Long-Term Receipt

Following the format of the previous annual reports to Congress, Chapter II presents summary data related to indicators of dependence. These indicators differ from other welfare statistics because of their emphasis on welfare dependence, rather than simple welfare receipt. As discussed in Chapter I, the Advisory Board on Welfare Indicators suggested measuring dependence as the proportion of families with more than 50 percent of their total income in a one-year period coming from cash assistance through the AFDC (now TANF) program, food stamps and SSI benefits. Furthermore, this welfare income was not to be associated with work activities.

The indicators in Chapter II were selected to provide information about the range and depth of dependence as defined by the Advisory Board. Existing data from administrative records and national surveys, however, do not generally distinguish welfare benefits received in conjunction with work from benefits received without work. Thus, it was not possible to construct one single indicator of dependence; that is, one indicator that measures both percentage of income from means-tested assistance and presence of work activities.

This chapter focuses on recipients of three major means-tested cash and nutritional assistance programs: cash assistance through the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) and the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) programs, benefits under the Food Stamp Program, and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits for elderly and disabled recipients. For some indicators, summary data and characteristics are provided for all recipients, not just those defined as welfare dependent. While a number of indicators focus on the percentage of recipients’ income from means-tested assistance, other indicators focus on presence of work activities at the same time as welfare receipt.

Here is a brief summary of each of the nine indicators:

Indicator 1: Degree of Dependence. This indicator focuses most closely on those individuals who meet the Advisory Board’s proposed definition of “dependence.” In addition to examining individuals with more than 50 percent of their annual family income from AFDC/TANF cash assistance, food stamps and/or SSI benefits, it shows various levels of dependence by examining those with more than 0 percent, 25 percent, and 75 percent of their income from these sources (Indicators 1a and 1b). This indicator also shows the average percentage of income from means-tested assistance and earnings received by families with various levels of income relative to the poverty level (Indicators 1c and 1d).

Indicator 2: Receipt of Means-Tested Assistance and Labor Force Attachment. This indicator looks further at the relationship between receipt of means-tested assistance and participation in the labor force. This is an important issue because of the significant number of low-income individuals that use a combination of means-tested assistance and earnings from the labor force.

Indicator 3: Rates of Receipt of Means-Tested Assistance. This indicator paints yet another picture of dependence by measuring recipiency rates, that is, the percentage of the population that receives AFDC/TANF, food stamps, or SSI in an average month. Program administrative data make these figures readily available over time, allowing a better sense of historical trends than is available from the more specialized indicators of dependence.

Indicator 4: Rates of Participation in Means-Tested Assistance Programs. While means-tested public assistance programs are open to all that meet their requirements, not all eligible households participate in the programs. This indicator uses administrative data and microsimulation models to reflect “take up rates” — the number of families that actually participate in the programs as a percentage of those who are legally eligible.

Indicator 5: Multiple Program Receipt. Depending on their circumstances, individuals may choose a variety of different means-tested assistance “packages.” This indicator looks at the percentage of individuals receiving AFDC/TANF, food stamps, and SSI in a month, examining how many rely on just one of these programs, and how many rely on a combination of two programs.

Indicator 6: Dependence Transitions. This indicator uses data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to look at the ability of individuals who are dependent on welfare in one year to make the transition out of dependence in the following year.

Indicator 7: Dependence Spell Duration. Like Indicator 6, this indicator is concerned with dynamics of welfare receipt and welfare dependence. It shows the proportion of individuals with short, medium, and long spells, or episodes, of AFDC or TANF receipt. The focus is on individuals in AFDC/TANF families with no labor force participants.

Indicator 8: Program Spell Duration. One critical aspect of dependence is how long individuals receive means-tested assistance. Like Indicator 7, this indicator provides information on short, medium, and long spells of welfare receipt. It differs from Indicator 7 in looking at all recipients, regardless of attachment to the labor force, and in analyzing recipients of each of the three major means-tested programs — AFDC/TANF, the Food Stamp Program, and SSI.

Indicator 9: Long-Term Receipt. Many individuals who leave welfare programs cycle back on after an absence of several months. Thus it is important to look beyond individual program spells, measured in Indicator 8, to examine the cumulative amount of time individuals receive assistance over a period of several years.

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INDICATOR 1.
DEGREE OF DEPENDENCE

Figure IND 1a.
Percentage of Total Income from Means-Tested Assistance

Source: March CPS data, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

• Only 3.1 percent of the total population in 2001 received more than half of their total family income from TANF, food stamps and SSI. As shown in Table IND 1b, the percentage of families dependent on public assistance has dropped by almost 50 percent since 1993, with most of the decline occurring since 1996. As noted in Chapter I, preliminary data suggest dependency may increase slightly but will still be near 3 percent in 2002.
• Under 13 percent of the overall population received at least one dollar in means-tested assistance in 2001. However, for over half of these individuals (7 percent of the total population), such assistance represented 25 percent or less of annual family income. The vast majority (87 percent) of the population received no means-tested assistance in 2001.
• As shown in Table IND 1a, individuals living in female-headed families were much more likely to be dependent on assistance from means-tested programs compared to individuals in married-couple or male-headed families (11.9 percent compared to 1.0 and 4.0 percent respectively).
• In 2001, one in four individuals receiving some public assistance reported that TANF, food stamps, and SSI accounted for more than half of their total family income. This number reflected a decline in dependence since 1996, when nearly one in three individuals receiving public assistance were dependent on it.

Table IND 1a.
Percentage of Total Annual Family Income from Means-Tested Assistance Programs,
by Race/Ethnicity and Age: 2001

	0%	>0% and <= 25%	>25% and <= 50%	>50% and <= 75%	>75% and <= 100%	Total > 50%
All Persons	87.4	7.3	2.2	1.0	2.1	3.1
Racial/Ethnic Categories
Non-Hispanic White	91.8	5.1	1.3	0.5	1.3	1.8
Non-Hispanic Black	73.7	12.2	5.3	3.0	5.8	8.8
Hispanic	78.4	13.0	4.1	1.5	3.0	4.5
Age Categories
Children Ages 0-15	81.9	9.5	3.5	1.9	3.2	5.1
Women Ages 16-64	87.5	7.2	2.1	1.0	2.3	3.3
Men Ages 16-64	90.4	6.2	1.4	0.5	1.5	2.0
Adults Age 65 and over	90.4	5.8	1.9	0.6	1.3	1.9
Family Categories
Individuals in Married-Couple Families	92.6	5.4	1.0	0.4	0.6	1.0
Individuals in Female-Headed Families	63.6	16.4	8.0	4.4	7.5	11.9
Individuals in Male-Headed Families	78.8	13.3	3.9	1.4	2.6	4.0
Unrelated Individuals	90.0	5.0	1.2	0.4	3.4	3.8
Note: Means-tested assistance includes AFDC/TANF, SSI, and food stamps. Total >50% includes all persons with more than 50 percent of their total annual family income from these means-tested programs. Income includes cash income and the value of food stamps. Spouses are not present in the Female-Headed and Male-Headed family categories. Persons of Hispanic ethnicity may be of any race. Due to small sample size, American Indians/Alaska Natives, Asians and Native Hawaiians/Other Pacific Islanders are included in the total for all persons, but are not shown separately. Source: March CPS data, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

Table IND 1b.
Percentage of Total Annual Family Income from Means-Tested Assistance
Programs: 1993 – 2001

Year	0%	>0% and <= 25%	>25% and <= 50%	>50% and <= 75%	>75% and <= 100%	Total > 50%
1993	83.4	7.8	3.0	1.8	4.1	5.9
1994	82.8	8.4	3.1	1.8	4.0	5.8
1995	83.2	8.5	3.1	1.8	3.5	5.3
1996	84.0	7.8	3.1	1.9	3.3	5.2
1997	85.3	7.7	2.5	1.5	3.1	4.5
1998	86.5	7.3	2.5	1.3	2.5	3.8
1999	86.7	7.7	2.3	1.1	2.2	3.3
2000	87.5	7.3	2.2	1.0	2.0	3.0
2001	87.4	7.3	2.2	1.0	2.1	3.1
Note: See above for note and source.

Figure IND 1b.
Percentage of Total Annual Income from Various Sources,by Poverty Status: 2001

Source: March CPS data, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

• Those in families with income below the poverty level received half (50 percent) of their total family income from earnings and 29 percent of their total family income from means-tested assistance programs (TANF, SSI, and food stamps) in 2001. In contrast, those with family income over 200 percent of the poverty level received the majority (87 percent) of their income from earnings and less than one percent of their income from means-tested assistance (a percentage so small, it is not visible in Figure INDb).
• The percentage of family income received from earnings is inversely proportional to overall family income relative to the poverty line. For example, the percentage of income received from earnings for those living in deep poverty (below 50 percent of poverty) was only 32 percent, compared to 50 percent for all poor individuals in 2001.
• On average, children were more likely than the elderly to live in families receiving a higher percentage of their income from means-tested assistance programs, as shown by Table IND 1c. The elderly received more income from other income sources, such as Social Security benefits and private pensions.
• The percentage of income received from earnings for families with incomes below the poverty level has increased over time, as shown in Table IND 1d. In 1995, poor families received 40 percent of their income from earnings; this percentage rose to 50 percent in 2001. Over the same time period, there was a decline in the percentage of income from means-tested programs among poor families from 41 percent to 29 percent.

Table IND 1c.
Percentage of Total Annual Family Income from Various Sources, by Poverty Status,
Race/Ethnicity, and Age: 2001

	< 50% and Poverty	<100% of Poverty	<200% of Poverty	200% + of Poverty	All Individuals
All Persons
TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps	53.0	28.6	9.1	0.2	1.0
Earnings	31.6	49.9	69.3	87.1	85.5
Other Income	15.4	21.5	21.6	12.7	13.5
Racial/Ethnic Categories
Non-Hispanic White
TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps	51.8	25.8	6.8	0.1	0.5
Earnings	28.1	45.3	64.2	86.2	84.9
Other Income	20.0	28.8	29.0	13.7	14.6
Non-Hispanic Black
TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps	61.1	38.9	15.6	0.5	3.3
Earnings	23.5	40.6	65.0	88.9	84.4
Other Income	15.3	20.6	19.4	10.6	12.3
Hispanic
TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps	42.9	23.1	8.7	0.6	2.6
Earnings	46.7	64.2	81.3	92.3	89.6
Other Income	10.4	12.7	10.0	7.1	7.8
Age Categories
Children Ages 0-5
TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps	60.1	32.1	11.0	0.2	1.8
Earnings	28.8	57.4	80.7	94.6	92.5
Other Income	11.1	10.6	8.3	5.2	5.6
Children Ages 6-10
TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps	59.5	32.4	10.9	0.1	1.6
Earnings	27.1	53.7	78.6	93.7	91.6
Other Income	13.4	13.9	10.5	6.2	6.8
Children Ages 11-15
TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps	58.2	30.7	9.9	0.1	1.3
Earnings	29.3	53.2	77.7	92.5	90.7
Other Income	12.5	16.1	12.5	7.4	8.0
Women Ages 16-64
TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps	49.9	30.1	9.8	0.2	0.9
Earnings	32.6	49.1	73.3	89.7	88.4
Other Income	17.6	20.8	16.8	10.1	10.7
Men Ages 16-64
TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps	40.6	23.3	7.6	0.2	0.6
Earnings	43.2	55.9	77.0	90.9	90.1
Other Income	16.2	20.7	15.4	8.9	9.3
Adults Age 65 and over
TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps	20.0	18.9	5.7	0.3	1.0
Earnings	10.2	5.9	9.4	36.1	32.6
Other Income	69.8	75.1	84.9	63.6	66.4
Note: Total income is total annual family income, including the value of food stamps. Other income is non means-tested, non-earnings income such as child support, alimony, pensions, Social Security benefits, interest, and dividends. Poverty status categories are not mutually exclusive. Persons of Hispanic ethnicity may be of any race. Due to small sample size, American Indians/Alaska Natives, Asians and Native Hawaiians/Other Pacific Islanders are included in the total for all persons but are not shown separately. Source: March CPS data, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

Table IND 1d.
Percentage of Total Income from Various Sources: Selected Years

	< 50% and Poverty	<100% of Poverty	<200% of Poverty	200% + of Poverty
1995
TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps	65.9	41.3	14.2	0.3
Earnings	22.5	40.4	64.8	85.4
Other Income	11.6	18.3	21.0	14.3
1999
TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps	53.1	29.8	9.7	0.2
Earnings	30.2	49.3	69.1	85.0
Other Income	16.6	20.8	21.2	14.7
2000
TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps	54.3	30.3	9.8	0.2
Earnings	30.5	49.5	68.7	86.7
Other Income	15.2	20.3	21.5	13.0
2001
TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps	53.0	28.6	9.1	0.2
Earnings	31.6	49.9	69.3	87.1
Other Income	15.4	21.5	21.6	12.7
Note: See above for note and source.

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INDICATOR 2.
RECEIPT OF MEANS-TESTED ASSISTANCE AND LABOR FORCE ATTACHMENT

Figure IND 2.
Percentage of Recipients in Families with Labor Force by Program: 2001

Source: March CPS data, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

• In 2001, 61 percent of individuals who received TANF, 56 percent of individuals who received food stamps, and 37 percent of individuals who received SSI were in families with at least one person in the labor force, either part-time or full-time.
• About one-third of TANF and food stamp recipients lived in families with at least one full-time worker in 2001, while approximately one-quarter had only a part-time labor force participant. In contrast, SSI recipients were more likely to live in families with no labor force participant.
• As shown in Table IND 2a, young children (under age six) in households receiving TANF, food stamps, and SSI were more likely to live with at least one full-time worker than were older children (ages 11-15) in such recipient households.
• The percentage of AFDC/TANF recipients living in families with at least one full-time worker increased from 19 percent in 1993 to 35 percent in 2001, as shown in Table IND 2b.

Table IND 2a.
Percentage of Recipients in Families with Labor Force Participants, by Program,
Race/Ethnicity, and Age: 2001

		No One in LF	At Least One in LF, No One FT	At Least One FT Worker
TANF	All Persons	38.7	26.0	35.3
	Non-Hispanic White	35.9	25.8	38.3
	Non-Hispanic Black	44.1	27.3	28.6
	Hispanic	37.7	24.0	38.3
	Children Ages 0-5	38.1	23.2	38.7
	Children Ages 6-10	41.0	26.4	32.6
	Children Ages 11-15	39.6	27.5	32.9
	Women Ages 16-64	40.1	26.1	33.8
	Men Ages 16-64	30.1	30.4	39.5
	Adults Age 65 and over	66.3	16.5	17.2
FOOD STAMPS	All Persons	44.0	23.2	32.8
	Non-Hispanic White	46.7	23.5	29.8
	Non-Hispanic Black	43.7	24.0	32.3
	Hispanic	39.1	20.8	40.1
	Children Ages 0-5	34.4	24.1	41.5
	Children Ages 6-10	34.8	25.0	40.2
	Children Ages 11-15	38.4	25.7	35.9
	Women Ages 16-64	45.7	24.2	30.2
	Men Ages 16-64	43.6	24.4	32.0
	Adults Age 65 and over	88.9	6.4	4.7
SSI	All Persons	63.5	8.7	27.8
	Non-Hispanic White	69.7	8.1	22.3
	Non-Hispanic Black	62.7	10.3	27.0
	Hispanic	52.2	8.8	39.0
	Children Ages 0-5	32.1	14.0	53.9
	Children Ages 6-10	31.9	17.5	50.5
	Children Ages 11-15	35.5	14.1	50.4
	Women Ages 16-64	72.8	8.9	18.2
	Men Ages 16-64	64.1	8.0	27.9
	Adults Age 65 and over	65.9	6.6	27.5
Note: Recipients are limited to those individuals or family members directly receiving benefits in a month. Full-time workers are those who usually work 35 hours or more per week. Part-time labor force participation includes part-time workers and those who are unemployed, laid off, and/or looking for work. This indicator measures, on an average monthly basis, the combination of individual benefit receipt and labor force participation by any family member in the same month. Persons of Hispanic ethnicity may be of any race. Due to small sample size, American Indians/Alaska Natives, Asians and Native Hawaiians/Other Pacific Islanders are included in the total for all persons but are not shown separately. Source: March CPS data, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

Table IND 2b.
Percentage of AFDC/TANF Recipients in Families with Labor Force Participants,
1993 – 2001

Year	No one in LF	At least one in LF, No one FT	At least one FT worker
1993	57.0	24.2	18.8
1994	54.8	24.8	20.4
1995	50.6	24.3	25.1
1996	50.1	25.6	24.3
1997	47.6	28.0	24.4
1998	44.3	25.8	29.9
1999	40.8	24.1	35.1
2000	41.2	24.1	34.7
2001	38.7	26.0	35.3
Note: Recipients are limited to those individuals or family members directly receiving benefits in a month. Full-time workers are those who usually work 35 hours or more per week. Part-time labor force participation includes those who are unemployed, laid off, and/or looking for work. This indicator measures, on an average monthly basis, the combination of individual benefit receipt and labor force participation by any family member in the same month. Source: March CPS data, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

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INDICATOR 3.
RATES OF RECEIPT OF MEANS-TESTED ASSISTANCE

Figure IND 3a.
Percentage of the Total Population Receiving AFDC/TANF, by Age: 1970 – 2002

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Family Assistance, and U.S. Bureau of the Census (available online at http://www.census.gov).

• Although the survey data needed to examine overall welfare receipt and dependency are not yet available past 2001, administrative data for recipiency measures of AFDC/TANF, food stamps, and SSI are available through 2002, as shown in Figures IND 3a, IND 3b, and IND 3c. Additional administrative data are shown in Appendix A.
• Just under 2 percent of the population received TANF in 2002. This is the lowest rate of AFDC/TANF receipt in the past 30 years, as shown in Table IND 3a. The percentage of the total population receiving AFDC/TANF has dropped significantly since 1994, when it was at a 25-year high of over 5 percent.
• AFDC/TANF recipiency rates have been much higher over time for children than for adults, with the child recipiency rates also showing more pronounced changes over time. Between 1993 and 2002, AFDC/TANF receipt among children was cut by more than half (from 14 to under 6 percent), the most rapid decline in a generation.

Table IND 3a.
Number and Percentage of the Total Population Receiving AFDC/TANF, by Age
1970 – 2002

Fiscal Year	Total Recipients		Adult Recipients		Child Recipients
	Number (thousands)	Percent	Number (thousands)	Percent	Number (thousands)	Percent
1970	7,188	3.5	1,863	1.4	5,325	7.6
1971	9,281	4.5	2,516	1.8	6,765	9.7
1972	10,345	4.9	2,848	2.0	7,497	10.8
1973	10,760	5.1	2,984	2.1	7,776	11.3
1974	10,591	5.0	2,935	2.0	7,656	11.3
1975	10,854	5.0	3,078	2.1	7,776	11.6
1976	11,171	5.1	3,271	2.2	7,900	11.9
1977	10,933	5.0	3,230	2.1	7,703	11.8
1978	10,485	4.7	3,128	2.0	7,357	11.4
1979	10,146	4.5	3,071	1.9	7,075	11.0
1980	10,422	4.6	3,226	2.0	7,196	11.3
1981	10,979	4.8	3,491	2.1	7,488	11.8
1982	10,233	4.4	3,395	2.0	6,838	10.9
1983	10,467	4.5	3,548	2.1	6,919	11.1
1984	10,677	4.5	3,652	2.1	7,025	11.2
1985	10,630	4.5	3,589	2.0	7,041	11.2
1986	10,810	4.5	3,637	2.1	7,173	11.4
1987	10,878	4.5	3,624	2.0	7,254	11.5
1988	10,734	4.4	3,536	2.0	7,198	11.4
1989	10,741	4.4	3,503	1.9	7,238	11.4
1990	11,263	4.5	3,643	2.0	7,620	11.9
1991	12,391	4.9	4,016	2.1	8,375	12.8
1992	13,423	5.2	4,336	2.3	9,087	13.7
1993	13,943	5.4	4,519	2.3	9,424	13.9
1994	14,033	5.3	4,554	2.3	9,479	13.8
1995	13,479	5.1	4,322	2.2	9,157	13.2
1996	12,477	4.6	3,921	2.0	8,556	12.2
1997	10,779	4.0	3,106	1.5	7,673	10.8
1998	8,653	3.1	2,581	1.3	6,078	8.5
1999	7,068	2.5	1,973	1.0	5,096	7.1
2000	6,218	2.2	1,640	0.8	4,579	6.3
2001	5,674	2.0	1,460	0.7	4,215	5.8
2002	5,572	1.9	1,419	0.7	4,152	5.7
Notes: See Appendix A, Tables TANF 2, TANF 12, and TANF 14, for more detailed data on recipiency rates, including recipiency rates by calendar year. Recipients are expressed as the fiscal year average of monthly caseloads from administrative data, excluding recipients in the territories. Child recipients include a small number of dependents ages 18 and older who are students. The average number of adult and child recipients in 1998 and 1999 are estimated using data from the National Emergency TANF Data Files and thereafter using the National TANF Data Files. Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Family Assistance, and U.S. Bureau of the Census (available online at http://www.census.gov).

Figure IND 3b.
Percentage of the Total Population Receiving Food Stamps,by Age: 1975-2002

Source: USDA, Food and Nutrition Service, Office of Analysis, Nutrition, and Evaluation, Characteristics of Food Stamp Households, Fiscal Year 2001, and earlier reports, and U.S. Bureau of the Census (available online at http://www.census.gov).

• The food stamp recipiency rate increased to 6.6 percent in 2002, above the two previous years’ rate of 6.1 percent  — the lowest rate since the Food Stamp program became available nationwide. The 2002 recipiency rate is still significantly below the peak of 10.4 percent experienced in 1993 and 1994.
• As with AFDC/TANF, food stamp recipiency rates have been much higher over time for children than for adults. Between 1980 and 2002, the percentage of all children who received food stamps was between two and one-half to three times that for all adults ages 18 to 59.
• Similar trends in food stamps recipiency  — largely reflecting changes in the rate of unemployment and programmatic changes — existed across all age groups over time, as shown in Table IND 3b. The percentages of individuals receiving food stamps within all age groups declined from 1984 through 1988, rose in the early 1990s until reaching a peak in 1994, and then declined through 2000 followed by a slight increase in 2002.

Table IND 3b.
Number and Percentage of the Total Population Receiving Food Stamps, by Age
1975 – 2002

Fiscal Year	Total Recipients		Adult Recipients Age 60 and over		Adult Recipients Ages 18-59		Child Recipients Ages 0-18
	Number (thousands)	Percent	Number (thousands)	Percent	Number (thousands)	Percent	Number (thousands)	Percent
1975	16,320	7.6	–	–	–	–	–	–
1976	17,033	7.8	–	–	–	–	9,126	13.8
1977	15,604	7.1	–	–	–	–	–	–
1978	14,405	6.5	–	–	–	–	–	–
1979	15,942	7.1	–	–	–	–	–	–
1980	19,253	8.5	1,741	4.9	7,186	5.6	9,876	15.5
1981	20,654	9.0	1,845	5.0	7,811	6.0	9,803	15.5
1982	21,754	9.4	1,641	4.4	7,838	6.0	9,591	15.3
1983	21,668	9.3	1,654	4.4	8,960	6.7	10,910	17.4
1984	20,796	8.8	1,758	4.5	8,521	6.3	10,492	16.8
1985	19,847	8.3	1,783	4.5	8,258	6.1	9,906	15.8
1986	19,381	8.1	1,631	4.1	7,895	5.7	9,844	15.7
1987	19,072	7.9	1,589	3.9	7,684	5.5	9,771	15.5
1988	18,613	7.6	1,500	3.7	7,506	5.3	9,351	14.8
1989	18,778	7.6	1,582	3.8	7,560	5.3	9,429	14.9
1990	20,020	8.0	1,511	3.6	8,084	5.6	10,127	15.8
1991	22,599	8.9	1,593	3.8	9,190	6.3	11,952	18.3
1992	25,369	9.9	1,687	3.9	10,550	7.2	13,349	20.1
1993	26,952	10.4	1,876	4.3	11,214	7.5	14,196	21.0
1994	27,433	10.4	2,367	5.4	13,384	8.9	14,391	21.0
1995	26,579	10.0	1,920	4.4	11,105	7.3	13,860	20.0
1996	25,494	9.5	1,891	4.3	10,769	7.0	13,189	18.8
1997	22,820	8.4	1,831	4.1	9,373	6.0	11,847	16.7
1998	19,745	7.2	1,635	3.6	7,760	4.9	10,524	14.7
1999	18,146	6.5	1,696	3.7	7,079	4.4	9,332	13.0
2000	17,120	6.1	1,700	3.7	6,612	4.0	8,743	12.1
2001	17,262	6.1	1,658	3.6	6,778	4.1	8,819	12.1
2002	19,003	6.6	1,684	3.6	7,625	4.5	9,688	13.3
Note: See Appendix A, Tables FSP 1 and FSP 6 for more detailed data on recipiency rates. Recipients are expressed as the fiscal year average of monthly caseloads from administrative data, excluding recipients in the territories. From 1975 to 1983 the number of participants includes the Family Food Assistance Program (FFAP) that was largely replaced by the Food Stamp program in 1975. From 1975 to 1983 the number of FFAP participants averaged only 88 thousand. Source: USDA, Food and Nutrition Service, Office of Analysis, Nutrition, and Evaluation, Characteristics of Food Stamp Households, Fiscal Year 2001, and earlier reports and U.S. Bureau of the Census (available online at http://www.census.gov).

Figure IND 3c.
Percentage of the Total Population Receiving SSI, by Age: 1975 – 2002

Source: Social Security Administration, Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, Social Security Bulletin, Annual Statistical Supplement 2003 (available online at http://www.ssa.gov/statistics) and U.S. Bureau of the Census (available online at http://www.census.gov).

• Unlike the recipiency rates for AFDC/TANF and food stamps, which have been influenced by outside factors such as the economy and welfare reform, overall recipiency rates for SSI show less variation over time. After trending downward slightly from 1975 to the early 1980s, the proportion of the total population that receives SSI has risen from 1.7 percent in 1985 to 2.5 percent in 1996 and subsequently declined slightly to 2.3 percent. As shown in Table IND 3c, the total number of recipients has grown by 66 over the same period, from 4.1 million in 1985 to 6.8 million people in 2002.
• Elderly adults (aged 65 and older) have much higher recipiency rates than any other age group. The gap has narrowed, however, as the percentage of adults aged 65 and older receiving SSI has been cut nearly in half, declining from 10.9 percent in 1975 to 5.6 percent in 2002.
• The proportion of children receiving SSI increased gradually between 1975 and 1990, and grew more rapidly in the early-to-mid 1990s, reaching a high of 1.4 percent in 1996. The rate has since fallen, with 1.2 percent of children receiving SSI in 2002.

Table IND 3c.
Number and Percentage of the Total Population Receiving SSI, by Age: 1975 – 2002

Date		Total Recipients		Adult Recipients Age 60 and over		Adult Recipients Ages 18-59		Child Recipients Ages 0-18
		Number (thousands)	Percent	Number (thousands)	Percent	Number (thousands)	Percent	Number (thousands)	Percent
Dec	1975	4,314	2.0	2,508	10.9	1,699	1.3	107	0.2
Dec	1976	4,236	1.9	2,397	10.2	1,714	1.3	125	0.2
Dec	1977	4,238	1.9	2,353	9.7	1,738	1.3	147	0.2
Dec	1978	4,217	1.9	2,304	9.3	1,747	1.3	166	0.3
Dec	1979	4,150	1.8	2,246	8.8	1,727	1.3	177	0.3
Dec	1980	4,142	1.8	2,221	8.6	1,731	1.2	190	0.3
Dec	1981	4,019	1.7	2,121	8.0	1,703	1.2	195	0.3
Dec	1982	3,858	1.7	2,011	7.4	1,655	1.2	192	0.3
Dec	1983	3,901	1.7	2,003	7.3	1,700	1.2	198	0.3
Dec	1984	4,029	1.7	2,037	7.2	1,780	1.2	212	0.3
Dec	1985	4,138	1.7	2,031	7.1	1,879	1.3	227	0.4
Dec	1986	4,269	1.8	2,018	6.9	2,010	1.3	241	0.4
Dec	1987	4,385	1.8	2,015	6.7	2,119	1.4	251	0.4
Dec	1988	4,464	1.8	2,006	6.6	2,203	1.5	255	0.4
Dec	1989	4,593	1.9	2,026	6.5	2,302	1.5	265	0.4
Dec	1990	4,817	1.9	2,059	6.5	2,450	1.6	309	0.5
Dec	1991	5,118	2.0	2,080	6.5	2,642	1.7	397	0.6
Dec	1992	5,566	2.2	2,100	6.5	2,910	1.9	556	0.8
Dec	1993	5,984	2.3	2,113	6.4	3,148	2.0	723	1.1
Dec	1994	6,296	2.4	2,119	6.3	3,335	2.1	841	1.2
Dec	1995	6,514	2.5	2,115	6.3	3,482	2.2	917	1.3
Dec	1996	6,630	2.5	2,110	6.2	3,568	2.2	955	1.4
Dec	1997	6,495	2.4	2,054	6.0	3,562	2.2	880	1.3
Dec	1998	6,566	2.4	2,033	5.9	3,646	2.2	887	1.3
Dec	1999	6,557	2.4	2,019	5.8	3,691	2.2	847	1.2
Dec	2000	6,602	2.3	2,011	5.7	3,744	2.1	847	1.2
Dec	2001	6,688	2.3	1,995	5.6	3,811	2.1	882	1.2
Dec	2002	6,788	2.3	1,995	5.6	3,878	2.1	915	1.2
Note: December population figures used as the denominators are obtained by averaging the Census Bureau's July 1 population estimates for the current and the following year. See Appendix A, Tables SSI 2, SSI 8, and SSI 9 for more detailed data on SSI recipiency rates. In this report the categories of children under 18 and adults 18-64 differ from those in previous editions where the category of children included a small number of dependents 18 and older who were students. Source: Social Security Administration, Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, Social Security Bulletin, Annual Statistical Supplement 2003 (available online at http://www.ssa.gov/statistics), and U.S. Bureau of the Census (available online at http://www.census.gov).

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INDICATOR 4.
RATES OF PARTICIPATION IN MEANS-TESTED ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS

Figure IND 4.
Participation Rates in the AFDC/TANF, Food Stamp, and SSI Programs,
Selected Years

Source: AFDC and SSI participation rates are tabulated using TRIM3 microsimulation model, while food stamp participation rates are from a Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. model. See Tables IND 4a, IND 4b, and IND 4c for details.

• Whereas Indicator 3 examined participants as a percentage of the total population (recipiency rates), this indicator examines participating families or households as a percentage of the estimated eligible population (participation rates, also known as “take up” rates).
• Only 48 percent of the families estimated as eligible for TANF cash assistance actually enrolled and received benefits in an average month in 2001. This is significantly lower than AFDC participation rates, which ranged from 77 percent to 86 percent between 1981 and 1996. See Table IND 4a for further information.
• The food stamp participation rate edged up slightly between 2000 and 2001, from 53 to 54 percent. The participation rate is still much lower than the 1994 rate of 70 percent. See Table IND 4b for further discussion.
• After rising steadily over the past several years, the SSI participation rate appears to have dropped nearly 6 percentage points between 2000 and 2001. At 70 percent it still is much higher than recent TANF and Food Stamp participation rates. See Table IND 4c for details by age and disability status.

Table IND 4a.
Number and Percentage of Eligible Families Participating in AFDC/TANF
Selected Years

Calendar Year	Eligible Families (in millions)	Participating Families (in millions)	Participation Rate (percent)
1981	4.78	3.84	80.2
1983	4.75	3.69	77.7
1985	4.67	3.70	79.3
1987	4.92	3.78	76.7
1988	4.78	3.75	78.4
1989	4.54	3.80	83.6
1990	4.93	4.06	82.2
1992	5.64	4.83	85.7
1993	6.14	5.01	81.7
1994 (revised)	6.13	5.03	82.1
1995	5.69	4.80	84.3
1996	5.62	4.43	78.9
1997 (adjusted)	5.41	3.74	69.2
1998 (adjusted)	5.47	3.05	55.8
1999	5.07	2.65	52.3
2000	4.44	2.30	51.8
2001	4.56	2.19	48.0
Note: Participation rates are estimated by an Urban Institute model (TRIM3) which uses CPS data to simulate AFDC/TANF eligibility and participation for an average month, by calendar year. There have been small changes in estimating methodology over time, due to model improvements and revisions to the CPS. Most notably, since 1994, the model has been revised to more accurately estimate SSI participation among children, and in 1997 and 1998 the model was adjusted to more accurately exclude ineligible immigrants. In contrast to past editions, this table now includes families receiving assistance under Separate State Programs. Note that families subject to full-family sanctions are counted as nonparticipating eligible families due to modeling limitations. Also, the numbers of eligible and participating families include the territories and pregnant women without children, even though these two small groups are excluded from the TRIM model. The numbers shown here implicitly assume that participation rates for the territories and for pregnant women with no other children are the same as for all other eligibles. Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, caseload tabulations and unpublished data from the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

• Between 2000 and 2001, eligibility for the TANF program increased slightly from 4.44 to 4.56 million families. This eligibility increase is primarily due to changes in the economy and/or population rather than changes in TANF eligibility rules.
• Despite the small increase in TANF eligibility in 2001, caseloads continued to fall, resulting in a drop in the participation rate for the sixth consecutive year.
• Participating families includes families receiving TANF cash assistance only. Families who receive services and benefits other than cash assistance are not included in the participation rate.

Table IND 4b.
Number and Percentage of Eligible Households Participating in the Food Stamp Program:
Selected Years

Date	Eligible Households (in millions)	Participating Households (in millions)	Participation Rate (percent)
September 76	16.3	5.3	32.6
February 78	14.0	5.3	37.8
August 80	14.0	7.4	52.5
August 82	14.5	7.5	51.5
August 84	14.2	7.3	51.6
August 86	15.3	7.1	46.5
August 88	14.9	7.0	47.1
August 90	14.5	8.0	54.9
August 91	15.6	9.2	59.1
August 92	16.7	10.2	61.6
August 93	17.0	10.9	64.0
September 94 (revised)	15.3	10.7	69.6
September 95	15.0	10.4	69.2
September 96	15.3	9.9	65.1
September 97	14.7	8.4	57.5
September 98	14.0	7.6	54.2
September 99	13.6	7.3	53.7
September 00	13.5	7.1	52.9
September 01	13.9	7.5	54.0
Note: Eligible households estimated from a Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. model that uses CPS data to simulate the Food Stamp Program. Caseload data are from USDA, FNS program operations caseload data. There have been small changes in estimating methodology over time, due to model improvements and revisions to the CPS. Most notably, the model was revised in 1994 to produce more accurate (and lower) estimates of eligible households. The original 1994 estimate and estimates for previous years show higher estimates of eligibles and lower participation rates relative to the revised estimate for 1994 and estimates for subsequent years. Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service, Trends in Food Stamp Program Participation Rates: 1999 to 2001, July 2003.

• Between September 2000 and September 2001, there was a small increase in households eligible for the Food Stamp Program (from 13.5 to 13.9 million households). Caseloads grew at a slightly higher rate over the same year. The net effect was a small increase in the measured participation rate, from 53 to 54 percent.
• Over the longer run, there has been a significant drop in food stamp caseloads, from over 10 million in 1992 through 1995, to 7.5 million in 2001. This decline in caseloads occurred during a time when both the eligible population and the program participation rates were generally decreasing. These longer-term decreases are considerably larger than the small increases experienced in 2001.

• There was an apparent drop in the SSI participation rate among adult units between 2000 and 2001, from 76 to 70 percent. This decline occurred across aged one-person units, disabled one-person units, and married-couple units that are either aged or disabled and it is due to a significant increase in the estimated eligible population of these groups. There have not been similar increases in the participating populations, perhaps due to lags between application and enrollment.
• The increase in the eligible population reflects a rise in the number of aged individuals, an increase in disabilities as reported on labor-market surveys (which may partially reflect tougher economic times), and a higher percentage of aged and disabled persons falling below the SSI eligibility limits. Some of the increase in the eligible population may be due to changes in the Current Population Survey (i.e., reweighting to reflect 2000 Census-based weights).
• In 2001, as in past years, disabled adults in one-person units had a higher participation rate (76 percent) than both aged adults in one-person units (64 percent) and adults in married-couple units (46 percent).

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INDICATOR 5.
MULTIPLE PROGRAM RECEIPT

Figure IND 5.
Percentage of Population Receiving Assistance from Multiple Programs (TANF, Food
Stamps, SSI), Among Those Receiving Assistance: 2001

Source: March CPS data, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

• Of the 8 percent of the population in families receiving TANF, food stamps, or SSI benefits in an average month in 2001, about two-thirds (68 percent) received assistance from only one program. Most of these families received food stamps or SSI benefits only. However, other common patterns include food stamp and TANF receipt (19 percent) and food stamp and SSI receipt (12 percent).
• Children are more likely than other age groups to live in families receiving TANF and/or food stamps. For example, 16 percent of children under six lived in families receiving any public assistance in an average month in 2001, and 5 percent of children under six, lived in families receiving both TANF and food stamps, as shown in Table IND 5a.
• The percentage of individuals receiving assistance from at least one program among AFDC/TANF, food stamps, and SSI in an average month decreased during the mid-to-late 1990s (from 13 percent in 1994 to 8 percent in 2001), as shown in Table IND 5b.

Table IND 5a.
Percentage of Population Receiving Assistance from Multiple Programs (TANF, Food Stamps, SSI),
by Race/Ethnicity and Age: 2001

	Any Receipt	One Program Only			Two Programs
		TANF	FS	SSI	TANF & FS	FS & SSI
All Persons	8.1	0.3	3.9	1.4	1.5	1.0
Racial/Ethnic Categories
Non-Hispanic White	5.2	0.1	2.4	1.0	1.0	0.7
Non-Hispanic Black	19.4	0.3	10.7	2.5	3.6	2.3
Hispanic	12.4	0.9	5.7	2.2	2.6	1.0
Age Categories
Children Ages 0-5	15.7	0.8	8.7	0.7	5.1	0.5
Children Ages 6-10	13.8	0.6	8.0	0.7	3.8	0.6
Children Ages 11-15	11.3	0.6	6.3	0.8	3.0	0.7
Women Ages 16-64	7.5	0.2	3.6	1.1	1.5	1.1
Men Ages 16-64	5.0	0.1	2.4	1.4	0.5	0.7
Adults Age 65 and over	7.7	0.0	1.8	3.7	0.0	2.1
Note: Categories are mutually exclusive. SSI receipt based on individual receipt; AFDC/TANF and food stamp receipt based on full recipient unit. In practice, individuals do not tend to receive both AFDC/TANF and SSI; hence, no individual receives benefits from all three programs. The percentage of individuals receiving assistance from any one program in an average month (shown here) is lower than the percentage residing in families receiving assistance over the course of a year (shown in Table SUM 1 in Chapter I and Table IND 1a in Chapter II). Persons of Hispanic ethnicity may be of any race. Due to small sample size, American Indians/Alaska Natives, Asians and Native Hawaiians/Other Pacific Islanders are included in the total for all persons but are not shown separately. Source: March CPS data, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

Table IND 5b.
Percentage of Population Receiving Assistance from Multiple Programs
(AFDC/TANF, Food Stamps, SSI):  1993 – 2001

Year	Any Receipt	One Program Only			Two Programs
		FDC/ TANF	FS	SSI	AFDC/TANF & FS	SSI
1993	12.6	0.6	5.2	1.1	4.8	1.0
1994	12.8	0.5	5.3	1.2	4.6	1.1
1995	12.3	0.4	5.0	1.2	4.5	1.1
1996	12.0	0.3	5.3	1.2	4.0	1.1
1997	10.2	0.4	4.3	1.3	3.1	1.0
1998	9.0	0.4	3.9	1.4	2.4	0.9
1999	8.5	0.4	3.8	1.3	2.0	1.0
2000	8.1	0.2	3.8	1.4	1.7	1.0
2001	8.1	0.3	3.9	1.4	1.5	1.0
See above for note and source.

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INDICATOR 6.
DEPENDENCE TRANSITIONS

Figure IND 6.
Dependency Status in 1999 of Persons Who Received More than 50 Percent of
Income from Means-Tested Assistance in 1998, by Race/Ethnicity

Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1996 panel.

• Recipients of means-tested assistance were more likely to move out of dependency in the late 1990s than in the early 1990s. Three-tenths (30 percent) of recipients who received more than 50 percent of their total income from means-tested assistance programs in 1998 transitioned out of this dependency status in 1999. The comparable transition rate was only 20 percent between 1993 and 1994, as shown in Table IND 6b.
• Of recipients who received more than 50 percent of their total income from AFDC/TANF, food stamps, and/or SSI in 1998, there was little difference among racial and ethnic categories in dependency transitions between 1998 and 1999. Past SIPP panels (data not shown) had found more movement among non-Hispanic whites than among non-Hispanic blacks.
• As shown in Table IND 6a, a slightly larger percentage of women who received more than half of their total income from means-tested assistance programs in 1998 remained “dependent” in 1999 compared to the same group of men (71 percent compared to 66 percent).

Table IND 6a.
Dependency Status in 1999 of Persons Who Received More than 50 Percent of
Income from Means-Tested Assistance in 1998, by Race/Ethnicity and Age

Individuals Receiving more than 50% of Income from Assistance in 1998	Total (000's)	Percentage of Persons Receiving
		No Aid in 1999	Up to 50% in 1999	Over 50% in 1999
All Persons	8,163	2.9	27.1	70.0
Racial/Ethnic Categories
Non-Hispanic White	2,657	4.3	25.8	70.0
Non-Hispanic Black	2,925	2.0	27.8	70.1
Hispanic	1,895	2.0	26.3	71.7
Age Categories
Children Ages 0-5	1,271	3.6	29.7	66.6
Children Ages 6-10	1,056	2.1	27.4	70.6
Children Ages 11-15	998	2.9	29.0	68.1
Women Ages 16-64	2,847	3.7	25.5	70.8
Men Ages 16-64	1,337	2.7	31.6	65.7
Adults Age 65 and over	654	0.0	16.4	83.6
Note: Means-tested assistance is defined as AFDC/TANF, food stamps, and SSI. While only affecting a small number of cases, general assistance income is included within AFDC/TANF income. Individuals are defined as dependent if they reside in families with more than 50 percent of total annual family income from these means-tested programs. Because full calendar year data for 1997-1998 were not available for all SIPP respondents, some transitions were based on twelve-month periods that did not correspond exactly to calendar years. Persons of Hispanic ethnicity may be of any race. Due to small sample size, American Indians/Alaska Natives, Asians and Native Hawaiians/Other Pacific Islanders are included in the total for all persons but are not shown separately. Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1996 panel.

Table IND 6b.
Dependency Status of All Persons Who Received More than 50 Percent of Income
from Means-Tested Assistance in Previous Year

Transitions from:	Total (000’s)	Percentage of Persons Receiving
		No Aid in Second Year	Up to 50% in Second Year	Over 50% in Second Year
1993 to 1994	14,810	1.6	18.6	79.8
1994 to 1995	13,986	2.7	18.8	78.5
1997 to 1998	9,672	3.1	28.8	68.1
1998 to 1999	8,163	2.9	27.1	70.0
Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 and 1996 panels.

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INDICATOR 7.
DEPENDENCE SPELL DURATION

Figure IND 7.
Percentage of AFDC/TANF Spells of Individuals in Families with No Labor Force Participants
for Individuals Entering Programs During the 1993 and 1996 SIPP Panels, by Length of Spell

Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 and 1996 panels.

• In the late 1990s over two-fifths (41 percent) of AFDC/TANF spells for individuals in families with no one in the labor force ended within four months and over two-thirds (68 percent) ended within a year. These spells are measured for individuals entering AFDC/TANF between 1996 and 1999, during early implementation of the TANF program.
• Spells were much longer for families entering AFDC between 1993 and 1995, as shown in Figure IND 7 and Table IND 7b. Half (50 percent) of AFDC/TANF spells for individuals in families where no one participated in the labor force lasted more than 20 months in the 1993 SIPP panel, compared with only 19 percent of that length in the 1996 SIPP panel.
• As shown in Table IND 7a, the percentage of AFDC/TANF spells ending in four months or less was similar across racial/ethnic categories, ranging from 38 percent among non-Hispanic whites to 44 percent among non-Hispanic blacks.
• Spells shown in Figure IND 7 are limited to spells of recipients in families without any labor force participation. Spell lengths are slightly shorter in Figure IND 8, which shows spells for all recipients, including those in families with labor force participants. For example, whereas 81 percent of spells between 1996 and 1999 shown in Figure IND 7 end in 20 months or less, 87 percent of all AFDC/TANF spells during this same time period last 20 months or less, as shown in Figure IND 8.

Table IND 7a.
Percentage of AFDC/TANF Spells of Individuals in Families with No Labor Force Participants
for Individuals Entering Programs During the 1996 SIPP Panel,
by Length of Spell, Race/Ethnicity, and Age

	Spells <= 4 Months	Spells 5-12 Months	Spells 13-20 Months	Spells >20 Months
All Persons	40.5	27.5	13.3	18.7
Racial/Ethnic Categories
Non-Hispanic White	38.4	35.8	NA	NA
Non-Hispanic Black	44.1	22.4	11.5	21.9
Hispanic	39.6	23.2	NA	NA
Age Categories
Ages 0-15 Years	38.9	25.0	12.9	23.2
Ages 16-64 Years	42.2	31.4	NA	NA
Note: Spell length categories are not mutually exclusive. Spells separated by only 1 month are not considered separate spells. Due to the length of the observation period, actual spell lengths for spells that lasted more than 20 months cannot be observed. AFDC spells are defined as those spells starting during the 1996 SIPP panel for individuals in families with no labor force participants. For certain racial/ethnic and age categories, data are not available (N/A) due to insufficient sample size. Persons of Hispanic ethnicity may be of any race. Due to small sample size, American Indians/Alaska Natives, Asians and Native Hawaiians/Other Pacific Islanders are included in the total for all persons but are not shown separately. Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1996 panel.

Table IND 7b.
Percentage of AFDC/TANF Spells of Individuals in Families with No Labor Force
Participants for Individuals Entering Programs During the 1993 and 1996 SIPP Panels

	Spells <=4 Months	Spells 5-12 Months	Spells 13-20 Months	Spells >20 Months
1993 Panel All Persons	27.2	16.2	6.9	49.7
1996 Panel All Persons	40.5	27.5	13.3	18.7
Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 and 1996 panels.

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INDICATOR 8.
PROGRAM SPELL DURATION

Figure IND 8.
Percentage of AFDC/TANF, Food Stamp, and SSI Spells for Individuals Entering
Programs During the 1996 SIPP Panel, by Length of Spell

Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1996 Panel.

• Between the years 1996 and 1999, short spells lasting 4 months or less accounted for about 47 percent of AFDC/TANF spells, 43 percent of food stamp spells, and 34 percent of SSI spells.
• Approximately three-fourths of all AFDC/TANF and food stamp spells lasted one year or less (76 percent and 71 percent, respectively). In contrast, only 53 percent of SSI spells ended within one year.
• As shown in Table IND 8a, for TANF/AFDC spells, a smaller percentage of long spells (lasting more than 20 months) occurred among non-Hispanic whites compared to non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics.
• Spells of welfare receipt were shorter in the second half of the 1990s than in the early 1990s, as shown in Table IND 8b. For example, only 13 percent of AFDC/TANF spells for individuals entering AFDC/TANF between 1996 and 1999 lasted 20 months or longer, compared with 34 percent of AFDC spells beginning between 1992 and 1994.
• Short spells are less common among recipients in families without labor force participants, as shown previously in Figure and Table IND 7.
• Length of TANF receipt varies across states, as shown in Appendix Table TANF 17, which shows an alternative measure of length of TANF receipt, using state administrative data.

Table IND 8a.
Percentage of AFDC/TANF, Food Stamp and SSI Spells for Individuals Entering
Programs During the 1996 SIPP Panel, by Length of Spell, Race/Ethnicity, and Age

		Spells <=4 Months	Spells 5-12 Months	Spells 13-20 Months	Spells >20 Months
AFDC/TANF	All Recipients	46.6	29.2	11.5	12.7
	Racial/Ethnic Categories
	Non-Hispanic White	47.4	33.0	10.7	8.9
	Non-Hispanic Black	45.2	28.3	13.6	12.9
	Hispanic	46.3	25.4	10.5	17.9
	Age Categories
	Ages 0-5 Years	41.8	33.2	10.8	14.2
	Ages 6 to 10 Years	49.4	24.6	9.0	17.0
	Ages 11 to 15 Years	42.5	25.6	N/A	N/A
	Ages 16 to 64 Years	48.6	30.7	12.0	8.7
	65 Years and Older	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
FOOD STAMPS	All Recipients	43.1	27.7	9.3	19.8
	Racial/Ethnic Categories
	Non-Hispanic White	46.5	27.5	9.4	16.7
	Non-Hispanic Black	38.6	28.5	9.1	23.9
	Hispanic	41.7	28.5	8.1	21.8
	Age Categories
	Ages 0 to 5 years	36.5	31.4	8.6	23.5
	Ages 6 to 10 years	40.6	27.3	9.1	22.9
	Ages 11-15	40.4	30.3	10.0	19.3
	Ages 16-64	46.2	26.7	9.6	17.6
	65 Years and Older	31.7	26.8	6.9	34.7
SSI	All Recipients	34.1	19.2	9.1	37.6
	Racial/Ethnic Categories
	Non-Hispanic White	36.8	18.7	7.8	36.7
	Non-Hispanic Black	34.8	19.7	9.5	36.0
	Hispanic	27.1	22.4	9.8	40.7
	Age Categories
	Ages 0-10	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
	Ages 11-15	30.9	N/A	N/A	N/A
	Ages 16-64	37.1	20.1	8.6	34.2
	65 Years and Older	22.1	16.7	11.9	49.3
Note: Spell length categories are not mutually exclusive. Spells separated by only 1 month are not considered separate spells. Due to the length of the observation period, actual spell lengths for spells that lasted more than 20 months cannot be observed. AFDC/TANF spells are defined as those starting during the 1996 SIPP Panel. For certain age categories, data are not available (N/A) because of insufficient sample size. Persons of Hispanic ethnicity may be of any race. Due to small sample size, American Indians/Alaska Natives, Asians and Native Hawaiians/Other Pacific Islanders are included in the total for all persons but are not shown separately. Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1996 panels.

Table IND 8b.
Percentage of AFDC/TANF, Food Stamp, and SSI Spells for Individuals Entering Programs
During the 1992, 1993, and 1996 SIPP Panels

	Spells <=4 Months	Spells 5-12 Months	Spells 13-20 Months	Spells >20 Months
1992 Panel
AFDC	30.4	24.7	10.5	34.4
Food Stamps	33.4	24.9	10.2	31.5
SSI	25.7	8.9	4.8	60.6
1993 Panel
AFDC	30.7	25.4	12.5	31.4
Food Stamps	33.1	26.8	10.1	30.0
SSI	24.0	7.9	4.7	63.4
1996 Panel
AFDC/TANF	46.6	29.2	11.5	12.7
Food Stamps	43.1	27.7	9.3	19.8
SSI	34.1	19.2	9.1	37.6
Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1992, 1993 and 1996 panels.

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INDICATOR 9.
LONG-TERM RECEIPT

Figure IND 9.
Percentage of AFDC/TANF Recipients, by Years of Receipt Between
1991 and 2000

Source: Unpublished data from the PSID public release data files, 1992-2001

• Among all persons receiving AFDC/TANF at some point in the ten-year period ending in 2000, about half (51 percent) received assistance in only one or two of these years. Less than one third (31 percent) received AFDC/TANF in three to five years, and less than one fifth (18 percent) received AFDC/TANF during more than five of the ten years.
• A larger percentage of child recipients experienced long-term receipt (some receipt in at least six of the ten years) and a smaller percentage experienced short-term receipt in all three time periods relative to the percentages for all recipients, as shown in Table IND 9.
• Longer-term welfare receipt was much less common during the 1990s compared to earlier decades. Less than 4 percent of those with some AFDC/TANF assistance between 1991 and 2000 received at least one assistance payment in nine or ten years of the period, compared to 12 percent and 13 percent of AFDC recipients in the earlier two time periods.
• In the two ten-year time periods between 1971-1990, there was a large percentage difference in short-term AFDC receipt between all black and non-black recipients. In the ten-year period ending in 2000, this percentage difference was much smaller, with 49 percent of blacks and 53 percent of non-blacks receiving AFDC/TANF in only one or two years.

Table IND 9.
Percentage of AFDC/TANF Recipients Across Three Ten-Year Time Periods
by Years of Receipt, Race, and Age

All Races:	All Recipients			Child Recipients 0-5
	1971-1980	1981-1990	1991-2000	1971-1980	1981-1990	1991-2000
Years received AFDC/TANF:
1-2 Years	44.0	44.8	50.9	36.3	36.1	37.9
3-5 Years	30.1	26.5	30.9	28.1	24.1	33.9
6-8 Years	12.5	16.4	14.5	17.9	20.5	23.3
9-10 Years	13.3	12.2	3.8	17.7	19.4	4.9
Black:	All Recipients			Child Recipients 0-5
	1971-1980	1981-1990	1991-2000	1971-1980	1981-1990	1991-2000
Years received AFDC/TANF:
1-2 Years	30.8	35.8	48.6	24.2	26.9	37.7
3-5 Years	31.9	28.4	24.2	28.4	25.7	28.2
6-8 Years	18.6	17.5	NA	24.7	18.7	NA
9-10 Years	18.7	18.4	NA	22.8	28.7	NA
Non-Black:	All Recipients			Child Recipients 0-5
	1971-1980	1981-1990	1991-2000	1971-1980	1981-1990	1991-2000
Years received AFDC/TANF:
1-2 Years	51.0	51.3	52.6	45.0	43.0	38.2
3-5 Years	29.2	25.2	36.0	27.8	22.9	38.7
6-8 Years	9.4	15.7	NA	13.1	21.8	NA
9-10 Years	10.5	7.9	NA	14.1	12.3	NA
Note: The base for the percentages consists of individuals receiving at least $1 of AFDC/TANF in any year in the ten-year period. Child recipients are defined by age in the first year of the 10-year period. This indicator measures years of recipiency over the specified ten-year time periods and does not take into account years of recipiency that may have occurred before or after each ten-year period. Race categories include those of Hispanic ethnicity. Due to small sample size, American Indians/Alaska Natives, Asians, and Native Hawaiians/Other Pacific Islanders are included in the estimates for non-black persons but are not shown separately. Data are not available (NA) separately by race for longer periods of cumulative receipt (6 or more years) in the most recent 10-year period. Source: Unpublished data from the PSID public release data files, 1992-2001.

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