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In its report for the FY 2001 Appropriation for the Department of Health and Human Services, the Conference Committee added funds for the fourth year to the Policy Research account in the Office of the Secretary and directed in its report that the funding support studies of the outcomes of welfare reform:
"The conferees include $7,125,000 to continue the study of the outcomes of welfare reform and to assess the impacts of policy changes on the low-income population. The conferees recommend that this effort include the collection and use of state-specific surveys and state and federal administration data, including data which are newly becoming available from state surveys. These studies should focus on assessing the well-being of the low-income population, developing and reporting reliable state-by-state measures of family hardship and well-being and of the utilization of other support programs, and improving the capabilities and comparability of data collection efforts. These studies should continue to measure outcomes for a broad population of welfare recipients, former recipients, potential recipients, and other special populations affected by state TANF policies. The conferees further expect a report on these topics to be submitted to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees by May 1, 2001." (H. Rept. 106-1033, page 165)
This document has been prepared by the Office of the Secretary, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation (ASPE), in response to the requirement for a report. Unless otherwise noted, this report discusses only the welfare outcomes research agenda supported by the targeted appropriation. No attempt has been made to reflect the separately funded welfare research agenda of the Department's Administration for Children and Families (ACF)(1) or the Department's broader health and human services research agendas, except to the extent that some projects are supported jointly by welfare outcomes funding and funds from other sources.
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In the four and a half years since the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA) was signed into law, the Department has been able to make significant contributions to the evidence being gathered and analyzed about the implementation and effects of welfare reform, due in large part to the infusion of Policy Research funding dedicated to studying welfare outcomes. Findings are now available on how those who left welfare are faring - their employment status, their wages and earnings, the job supports they are using, their poverty status, recidivism rates, material hardship, and family well-being. Information from studies of individuals and their families who are formally or informally diverted from Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) benefits are just becoming available. Projects examining the characteristics of the TANF caseload (i.e., "stayers"), including potential barriers to employment that welfare recipients may face, are planned for this year.
A substantial body of research about the outcomes of welfare reform has been and is being conducted by government- and foundation-funded researchers. The Department has paid careful attention to identifying on-going research, evaluation, and data activities which could be enhanced or modified, to identifying activities being funded or planned by other entities, to identifying knowledge gaps, and to avoiding unnecessary duplication. We have sought to create a portfolio of studies and strategies across a wide spectrum of welfare outcomes policy interests. In an effort to optimize the potential to answer the fundamental questions about welfare reform, we have used the targeted Policy Research funds to fully fund some projects, to fund specific portions of some larger studies, and to co-fund with other partners, including federal and state agencies, still other projects.
In keeping with the recommendations of the conferees, our research agenda over the past three years has covered a broad array of topics that complement other public and private efforts to assess the outcomes of welfare reform. We have funded studies that measure outcomes for a broad population of low-income families, examine diversion practices, and measure family hardship and well-being including the utilization of other support programs. Projects also are in place to assess the effects of welfare reform on current, former and potential welfare recipients and other special populations (e.g., those with mental health and substance abuse problems, people with disabilities, and immigrant families) affected by state TANF policies. Our plans for 2001 include studying those who remain on public assistance. Some of our research projects involve the collection and use of state-specific surveys and state and federal administrative data. We are also making explicit attempts to increase state and local capacity for data collection efforts. In addition, we are working to facilitate greater comparability in state and local level studies and continue to provide leadership in national-level survey work. Specific projects initiated over the past three years and our plans for 2001 activities are highlighted in the following chapters.
Despite the breadth and scope of the Department's welfare reform research agenda, significant questions about the implementation and outcomes of welfare reform remain, across a broad range of interests and perspectives. For example, since welfare reform has been implemented in the context of a strong national economy, we know little about the effect of welfare reform in other economic circumstances. There is wide variation in the design and application of policies across states, between local sites, and even from worker-to-worker. State policies and organizational structures continue to evolve. In some cases, state responsibilities are further devolved and/or contracted out to for- or non-profit entities. Little is known about individual reform strategies and what works best for whom. We know little about low-income families who do not become welfare recipients, or about the people who continue to receive cash assistance, even as the federal five-year time limit on cash benefits comes close. Many variables affect the outcomes of welfare reform, from welfare policies to the economy, and these variables often have confounding effects.
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ASPE's research plan for the targeted welfare outcomes policy research funds for FY 2001 is designed to meet the overall goal of creating an integrated picture of the low-income population, especially low-income families with children, in the wake of welfare reform. It focuses on broader analyses of the economic condition, health and well-being, socio-demographic characteristics, and the social service needs of low-income individuals, families, and children. Our interest is to cover a wide spectrum of policy interests focusing on welfare outcomes, poverty, working families, supports for low-income populations, the hard-to-serve and other special populations, and effects on children. We envision a broad-based research agenda that:
As in previous years, the welfare research, evaluation, and data projects planned for FY 2001 were designed to complement and enhance other efforts, both within and outside the federal government, to assess and monitor welfare outcomes without undue duplication. They include crosscutting topics, economic supports for poor families, children and youth, family formation, and special populations and local service delivery issues. Planned projects include continued support of secondary data analyses with national-level data sources to add to our understanding of the effects of welfare reform, and continued use of a variety of national surveys for analytical work focused on labor market and economic issues affecting low-income families with children, low-wage workers and the working poor. Our research plan also supports important Census Bureau data collection efforts, such as the Survey of Program Dynamics (SPD), the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), the Current Population Survey (CPS), and the American Community Survey (ACS). We are hopeful that these wide-ranging activities will not only increase our understanding of the outcomes of low-income families, but also contribute to the Department's ability to respond to questions about those outcomes. Specific projects planned in each of the topic areas are described in Chapter III.
A recently released study by the National Research Council's Committee on National Statistics(2) gave high marks to the Department for a welfare reform research agenda that "is impressive in scope, volume and diversity."(3) The Panel on Data and Methods for Measuring the Effects of Changes in Social Welfare Programs found that the welfare research offices within the Department "have substantial agendas for welfare reform research and have supported much high quality work" and "the breadth of their activities is considerable." The report acknowledges that the Department "has sponsored and conducted many studies that extensively document trends in the low-income population, both adults and children, and in the welfare recipient population," and continues to say, "these are perhaps the best and most comprehensive monitoring studies." The panel also spoke favorably of the Department's efforts to build state data capacity and data comparability through its support of monitoring studies, such as studies of families leaving welfare.
However, the study has also highlighted some additional factors that need to be considered as the future direction of welfare research is contemplated. The report identifies some important data gaps and offers numerous conclusions and recommendations with respect to defining research questions and outcomes of interest for measuring the effects of welfare reform, as well as the appropriate methods for answering those questions and the data needed to carry out these evaluations. For example, the Panel concluded that:
The conclusions and recommendations in the Panel's report(4) are designed to build up the "science base" of welfare reform research. Many of these issues are already being addressed by the Department in different ways. Some of them would have budgetary and legislative implications. Overall, we believe that our focus on creating an integrated picture of the low-income population, especially low-income families with children, combined with broader analyses of the economic condition, health and well-being, socio-demographic characteristics, and the social service needs of low-income individuals, families, and children, is consistent with the Panel's far-reaching recommendations. Nonetheless, the Panel's conclusions and recommendations will need to be studied and considered carefully by the Department as future welfare research plans are developed.
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Chapter II summarizes the results and findings we have received from projects funded in FYs 1998, 1999, and 2000 that have not been reported in previous reports. Chapter III provides an overview of our FY 2001 research plan for welfare-outcomes funded projects. Chapter IV describes the current status and target completion dates of continuing projects funded by the targeted policy research appropriations in FYs 1998, 1999, and 2000. A listing of the Conclusions and Recommendations of the Panel on Data and Methods for Measuring the Effects on Changes in Social Welfare Programs is included in Appendix A. Appendix B includes a full discussion of administrative- and, where available, survey-data findings from the ASPE-funded grants to states and localities to study welfare leavers.
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1. Information on ACF's welfare research activities can be found at <http://www.acf.dhhs.gov/programs/opre/>.
2. Conference report language accompanying the Fiscal Year 1998 and 1999 appropriations for welfare outcomes research funding included the recommendation that the Department "submit its research plan to the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) to provide further guidance on research design and recommend further research." Accordingly, funding was provided in Fiscal Years 1998, 1999, and 2000 to the NAS to convene an expert panel to evaluate current and future welfare reform research. Findings from the final report of the Panel on Data and Methods for Measuring the Effects of Changes in Social Welfare Programs, Evaluating Welfare Reform in an Era of Transition, were released April 5, 2001. Copies of the forthcoming report will be available through the Academy's website at <www.nas.edu>.
3. Specific quotations in this section are taken from a pre-publication copy of Evaluating Welfare Reform in an Era of Transition. Panel on Data and Methods for Measuring the Effects of Changes in Social Welfare Programs, Robert A. Moffitt and Michele Ver Ploeg, Editors. Committee on National Statistics, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press.
4. More details on the National Research Council's final report, Evaluating Welfare Reform in a Era of Transition, are included in Chapter II. A compilation of the Conclusions and Recommendations is included as Appendix A.
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